The meetings of the Central Banks followed the expected scheme

Posted on November 8, 2022 In relation to the FED meeting, just as during the month of June a lot of expectation had been created about a possible change of course, given the speed of the rises to date, there was no change and even the harshness of the message was reinforced. A more hawkish discourse with a 75 bps rise, the most aggressive since the 1980s. It has become clear that the FED is aware of the speed of the process of raising rates and in the future they will have to take into account the effect of their accumulation and the time delay until their impact on the economy is seen. Therefore, it is expected that the path of increases will slow down in the next meetings. For the Fed, the risk of doing little now to combat inflation is much greater than doing a lot by being aggressive and going too far, since they would have the capacity to lower rates in an inflationary and low-growth scenario. For its part, the BOE left a message that was almost the opposite of that of the FED. The expectations of a recessionary period during the next five quarters reduce the path of future rate hikes, as well as the terminal rate, and growth is put before inflation. With this dovish message, the prospects for the United Kingdom and for the pound sterling are very complicated, in a context of very high inflation and with the rest of the central banks still with an aggressive position. In the credit market, the week was positive, despite the significant correction after the Fed’s press conference on Wednesday. The generalized rally of the last few weeks has been generated in response to the expectation of a turn by the FED, which has not taken place.

Hritik Verma: