Published on November 8, 2022 The composite PMI for the Eurozone in October was 47.3 points, slightly better than the preliminary data (47.1 points) but still at levels of economic contraction, being below 50 points. This indicator along with those of the manufacturing and service sectors suggest that the Euro Zone economy is heading towards a winter regression. The president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, affirmed that the transmission of inflation has been faster and more intense than before because the margins of the companies have not acted as a buffer against price increases. Lagarde nuanced the message of the October meeting in a more aggressive direction and undoubtedly concerned about the inflation figure. Now the probabilities of rate movements are measured, placing the target at around 50 bps. The focus of the statement may be on the length of the tightening cycle and rates will be raised as much as necessary, with the possibility of taking them to 3% in fully restrictive territory. Regarding consumer expectations about inflation, the ECB will publish the results on housing, credit, income and consumption, as well as jobs and growth, but the market’s attention will be focused on inflation expectations. In the last survey, expectations were stable, but before that they had increased and that fact is being used as an argument that there is a material risk that inflation expectations become unanchored.
Eurozone economy in danger of recession
