Divided opinion at the Fed

Published on November 22, 2022 The tug of war between the expectations of terminal rates between the FED and the ECB, concerns about the intensity of the recession that is coming and the positioning of the different participants in the financial markets, continue to set the pace in credit curves, rates and their differentials. In the FED, divisions are already beginning to be seen among its members, since some support a more leisurely tightening line, more in line with a terminal rate of 4.75% – 5%, while the other side expects a rise in 75 bps in the next meeting. In the debt market yields rose, deepening the inversion of the curve, thus the 2-year added 8 bps, while the 10-year rose 6 bps, up to 3.83%. Yesterday a movement to search for safe-haven assets was recovered and this week we will also have the publication on Wednesday of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve. Also relevant last week was the inversion of the American curve (UST 2-10 years), which reached levels not seen since the eighties (71 bps on Friday). The 10-year UST reached 3.69%, below the FED rate (3.75%), which in other economic cycles has been an indication that the period of rate hikes is coming to an end and recession is entering. However, inflationary pressure remains high and the labor market has not shown signs of slowing down for the moment, forcing the FED to continue on the upward path, even if it is at a lower rate if the good inflation data for October is confirmed. . INFORMATIONTitleDivision of opinions in the FEDDescriptionThe tug of war between the expectations of terminal rates between the FED and the ECB, the concerns about the intensity of the looming recession and the positioning of the different participants in the financial markets, continue to set the pace in credit curves, rates and their spreads. Author GLOBALCAJA

Hritik Verma: