Posted on September 10, 2024 Friday's US employment data was weaker than expected, with figures for the past few months being revised downwards, resulting in the risk-off sentiment continuing and rates extending their fall. However, despite the figure not exceeding expectations, it was higher than the previous month, which distanced investors from the bet on a 50bp cut. In the market, this change in perspective (25% probability of a 50bp cut compared to around 40% prior to the data) was reflected by a stronger USD that continued to appreciate also during the session on Monday. This week, the key data will be inflation in the US, which is expected to stand at 2.6% compared to 2.9% the previous month. During today's session, we will pay attention to the presidential debate between Trump and Harris. In Europe, the focus is on Thursday's session and the ECB's economic policy decision, where a 25bp cut is expected, a message of caution and gradualism and where changes in growth and inflation projections will be particularly relevant. From the rest of the panel; the pound awaits the employment figures that we will know during today's session in the 0.8440 zone. The Japanese yen halts the strong appreciation movement that we saw last week and finds slight support in the 157.50 zone. As for the euro in its cross with the Swiss franc, the movement of the cross between 0.9345 – 0.9370 is contained.
From the Harris-Trump debate in the United States to monetary policy in Europe
